It's the 10th of January, 49 BC, and you are Julius Caesar, one of the greatest commanders in history. You've worked your way up the greasy ladder of Roman politics, elected quaestor in 68 BC, aedile in 65 BC, praetor in 62 BC, and finally - the greatest position in Roman politics - consul in 59 BC.
You've used this political power to secure yourself a governorship - a requisite for commanding an army. From there, campaign after campaign, you've grown in power, culminating in your total victory over Gaul (modern-day France) by defeating Vercingetorix at the Battle of Alesia - one of the greatest military victories in history.
However, back in Rome, your alliances have frayed. Pressure is being placed upon you to resign your governorship and consequently your right to command your army. This would place you at immense risk of being prosecuted by your enemies and likely lead to your death. The Senate - the body of ultimate power in Rome - gave you an ultimatum on the 1st of January: if you do not lay down your command, you will be declared a public enemy of Rome.
From that moment, you began your march towards Rome. But you've reached the river Rubicon, a small river in the north of Italy marking the border between the province of Cisalpine Gaul and Italy.
In Roman politics, governors were bestowed with imperium - the right to command - in their own provinces, but imperium over armies in Italy was reserved for the elected officials of Rome, which at this point Caesar is are not.
To exercise imperium over your troops in Italy is a capital offense. And entering Rome in command of an army means you and your army are automatically condemned to death.
You stand on the banks of the Rubicon, contemplating your choices, the fate of the Republic, and the future of Rome. Your decision is set; you lead your legion across the Rubicon.
Alea iacta est - The die has been cast.
Caesar’s crossing of the Rubicon is an act of a man proclaiming that he is beyond the law. It is not actually the start of the Roman Civil War but acts as the symbolic marker of passing a point of no return. In crossing the Rubicon, Caesar has condemned himself to death or glory.
The reason I mention Caesar and what might seem to many like dusty history is that crossing the figurative Rubicon is still a common feature of politics today. Yet, politicians seem to no longer have the courage to commit. The two most recent examples I can think of are Yevgeny Prigozhin, Former Wagner leader, and Yoon Suk Yeol, current President of South Korea.
Yevgeny Prigozhin was a Russian mercenary leader of the Wagner Group - a private military company with close ties to Putin. Prigozhin was close to Putin and actually served him food. The Wagner Group is a state-supported PMC arm of the Russian Military. They support Russian efforts worldwide but are best known for their operations in Africa.
As a result of Russia's early failures in the initial stages of the invasion of Ukraine, Wagner was brought in to support the invasion. During this time the Wagner Group ballooned to 50,000 fighters - which would make it the world's 62nd largest army, if it were a country.
As the conflict continued to drag on and Russian strategic failures occurred, Prigozhin started chafing at the bit of the Russian state. He began making enemies within the military establishment, particularly with Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.
This, as you would expect in a dictatorial state, was an enormous mistake.
The Ministry of Defence (MoD) called Prigozhin's bluff and ordered the Wagner Group to integrate with the military, diminishing Prigozhin's power and damaging their successful efforts in Africa.
However, on the 23rd of June, Prigozhin crossed the Rubicon and declared a rebellion against the Ministry of Defence, accusing them of falsehoods over the invasion of Ukraine and claiming that the Ministry was deceiving the public and the president.
At which point, the Wagner Group made serious progress towards Moscow, taking over Rostov-on-Don and repelling aerial attacks on their advance. In 23 hours, they got to within 200km of Moscow.
Prigozhin had declared rebellion believing that Putin would side with him against the Ministry of Defence.
He was wrong.
Putin refused to talk to him. Putin called Prigozhin's actions “treason”, saying they threatened the existence of Russia and - ever the history nerd - he drew parallels to the threat the Russian Revolution posed to Imperial Russia.
Prigozhin quickly began backtracking, claiming his actions were purely meant to remove Shoigu and other MoD officials from office. Prigozhin called off the mutiny and halted the advance. In exchange the State proclaimed that the Wagner organisation were safe and Prigozhin wouldn’t be prosecuted.
However, Prigozhin had crossed the Rubicon.
Prigozhin had challenged the institutions of the state, the first rebellion in Russia since 1993, and represented a direct challenge to Putin’s rule. Regardless of the motivation, Prigozhin had marked himself for death or glory in the eyes of the Russian state.
Prigozhin's other business interests were quickly dismantled. MoD officials who had known of the rebellion were removed from power. The Wagner group was stripped of military assets and reportedly were no longer participating in the Ukrainian conflict, and two months to the day of the rebellion, Prigozhin was mysteriously killed in a plane crash.
Yoon Suk Yeol is currently the 13th President of South Korea. He was elected in 2022 and has three years left to serve as the President.
South Korea is a politically turbulent country. Since the coup in the 1980, many of the presidents of South Korea have been sentenced to death, imprisoned, committed suicide to stop investigations, or impeached. The president is a unique role in Korean politics with high levels of centralised power, which has incentivised successive Presidents to misuse their power.
President Yoon has struggled. His approval ratings are low, multiple scandals have rocked his administration, and in the recent South Korean parliamentary elections, his party lost.
There were already calls for him to be impeached by over a million South Koreans. Over 3,000 professors and 1,500 priests signed a declaration calling for his resignation. President Yoon was in trouble.
His solution was, in the middle of the night, to declare Martial Law. This action crossed the Rubicon. He would either emerge a glorious leader or follow many of his predecessors to prison.
Yoon vowed to "rebuild a democratic and free Korea" and claimed he was combating North Korean infiltration. He was allowed to do this under Article 77 of the Korean constitution which allows the president to declare martial law during national emergencies.
However, a sub-clause of the article also gives the National Assembly the ability to request the lifting of martial law through a majority vote in the Assembly. Therefore, Dictator 101 - Don’t let the vote happen. However, President Yoon failed to prevent the vote, and not 7 hours after declaring Martial Law, he lifted it.
Hilariously, the attempted impeachment of President Yoon failed due to a missed quorum (not enough people voted in the impeachment vote), but Yoon's days are surely numbered as president.
Bizarrely, this might not be the last attempt to Cross the Rubicon this year.
France is currently in deep economic problems. Currently, their deficit is 6% of GDP, heading towards 7%. European fiscal rules require it to be no more than 3%. French bond yields are spiking, which causes the cost to borrow to increase drastically. French yields have been higher than the Spanish or Portuguese yields for months. Currently, the European Central Bank is warning that it cannot buy distressed French bonds as the French are in breach of every one of its tests.
To solve this, the Michel Barnier government under Macron submitted a proposal to the French Parliament which would focus on reducing the budget deficit via austerity measures and tax increases. Neither the left nor the right wanted to approve the budget. But Barnier tried to force the budget through anyways, leading to a successful vote of no confidence.
Because there were recent elections in the French Assembly, Macron cannot dissolve parliament until June next year. Therefore, Macron has three options. He can appoint a new Prime Minister, an almost impossible task, he could resign, or he could enact Article 16 of the constitution.
Articel 16 is a clause in the constitution that allows him to assume emergency powers. This would allow Macron to rule essentially like a dictator for two months. Will Macron cross the Rubicon? I'm not sure; in June, he did raise the threat of civil war. However, activating Article 16 powers is almost certain to cause one. Certainly one to watch.